The history of South Sudan

I. Introduction – The Making of a Nation

South Sudan is the youngest sovereign state in the world, having gained independence from Sudan on July 9, 2011, after decades of colonial rule, insurgency, and civil war. Its independence marked the hopeful culmination of a long quest for self-determination by the majority Non‑Arab populations of what was then southern Sudan, who endured prolonged marginalization, political exclusion, and violent conflict with the northern Sudanese governments in Khartoum.

Despite the global celebration of its birth, the fledgling nation has faced deep challenges from its inception: entrenched ethnic divisions, weak governance, rampant corruption, underdeveloped infrastructure, a fragile economy, and a history of violent strife that quickly flared into an internal civil war in 2013.

II. Prelude: Historical and Structural Challenges

Understanding South Sudan’s present requires acknowledging its past. For much of the 20th century, the southern Sudanese population lived under political exclusion, economic neglect, and military campaigns waged from Khartoum. Armed resistance led by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) endured intermittent peace deals and resumed fighting until a comprehensive peace agreement in 2005 paved the way for autonomy, and later, independence in 2011.

Yet the very forces that brought South Sudan to freedom also sowed the seeds of future conflict. The SPLM, the dominant liberation movement, struggled to transform into a unifying governing party, instead fostering power networks centered around military elites. Ethnic identities — historic fault lines between the Dinka (the largest ethnic group), the Nuer, and many smaller communities — remained powerful political and military mobilizers.

By 2013, political rivalry between President Salva Kiir (a Dinka) and his then Vice President Riek Machar (a Nuer) exploded into a brutal civil conflict along ethnic, political, and military divisions. Though peace deals were signed and broken multiple times, notably the 2015, 2017, and 2018 Revitalized Peace Agreement, stability never fully materialized. These power-sharing pacts repeatedly faltered as distrust persisted between factions, corruption weakened governance, and violence flared intermittently.

III. Political Landscape in 2025–2026: Deadlock, Violence, and Elections

A. Escalating Political Tensions

The political landscape in 2025 and early 2026 has been dominated by deepening crisis rather than reconciliation. The Revitalized Peace Agreement, which was intended to guide South Sudan toward unity and lasting governance, has largely stalled. Clashes between government forces and opposition aligned with Machar’s SPLA‑IO (Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition) have intensified in several regions, including Western Equatoria, Upper Nile, Unity, and Central Equatoria.

In early 2025, Machar was placed under house arrest, accused of treason, murder, and other serious crimes. His detention deepened political mistrust and eroded the fragile power-sharing arrangement between Kiir and Machar’s faction.

These developments ignited renewed armed hostilities, for example, significant clashes in Malakal in March 2025, which resulted in more than 180 deaths and mass internal displacement as communities fled the violence.

B. Human Rights and State Control

Human rights abuses have also increased. The government’s security apparatus — particularly the National Security Service — has curtailed civil liberties, arrested political activists, and suppressed opposition voices. There have been documented cases of indiscriminate aerial bombings in areas with opposition presence, resulting in civilian deaths, destruction of property, and further undermining of peace processes.

C. The 2026 Democratic Milestone: Elections and Uncertainties

South Sudan is scheduled to hold its first democratic elections in December 2026, more than a decade after independence. Originally set for 2015 and repeatedly postponed, this election represents a critical opportunity — or a potential source of further instability. Many analysts warn that without genuine implementation of peace agreements, consensus among leaders, and institutional reforms, elections could inflame tensions instead of consolidating peace.

The upcoming vote places enormous demands on a young state that has yet to stabilize basic governance structures, reconcile warring factions, and expand democratic culture beyond elite power interests. If poorly managed, elections could reinforce political exclusion, validate coercive governance practices, and generate further conflict.

IV. Economic Realities: Oil, Dependency, and Decline

A. Oil: Blessing and Burden

The South Sudanese economy is heavily dependent on oil exports, which make up nearly all government revenue and foreign exchange. However, South Sudan’s landlocked geography means oil must be transported through pipelines in neighboring Sudan to reach international markets. This dependency has made the economy vulnerable to regional instability.

The conflict in Sudan since April 2023 disrupted this vital oil export infrastructure, causing severe economic contraction. When pipelines were damaged and exports halted, revenues plunged, public finances collapsed, and the economy entered a deep recession.

B. Economic Decline and the World Bank’s Assessment

According to the World Bank’s “South Sudan Economic Monitor” (March 2025), the country’s economy was projected to contract by 30 % in fiscal year 2024–2025. This reflected sustained decline over several years. GDP per capita fell to roughly half of what it was in 2020, while public expenditure on essential services shrank amid fiscal strain, salary arrears for civil servants accumulated, and food insecurity soared.

Hyperinflation, record unemployment, and extreme poverty have taken a heavy toll, particularly on urban and rural poor. Nearly 80 % of the population in 2025 required humanitarian assistance, with the most vulnerable suffering from lack of food, healthcare, and stable income.

C. Corruption and Institutional Weaknesses

Compounding these economic hardships, corruption has permeated government institutions. Multiple investigations have revealed systemic misallocation of funds, opaque management of oil revenues, and budgetary priorities that favor elite interests over public welfare. A report highlighted that the government’s spending on the presidential medical unit exceeded nationwide healthcare expenditures, a telling symbol of skewed priorities in a country grappling with widespread deprivation.

Such corruption undermines public trust, weakens governance capacity, and diverts scarce resources away from essential sectors such as health, education, and infrastructure.

V. Humanitarian Crisis: Displacement, Food Insecurity, Disease, and Collapse of Services

A. Displacement Since Independence

South Sudan has endured one of the most severe internal displacement crises in recent history. The civil war and subsequent clashes have forced millions from their homes, often repeatedly.

By the end of 2025, approximately 2.7 million people were internally displaced, with around 3 million returnees — those who had fled abroad and later returned — attempting to rebuild amid extremely difficult conditions.

B. Hunger and Food Security in 2026

Food insecurity has escalated to crisis levels. An IPC report warned that in 2026, more than half of the population — over 7.5 million people — would face crisis or worse levels of hunger during the lean season (April–July). Nutritional analysts projected that more than 2 million children would suffer from acute malnutrition.

Beyond conflict, South Sudan is highly vulnerable to climate shocks. Recurrent flooding disrupted agricultural production and displaced farming communities. Over 927,000 people were affected by flooding across multiple counties by October 2025, displacing hundreds of thousands and damaging education and infrastructure.

C. Health System Collapse

The country’s health sector has deteriorated dramatically. Many facilities are inoperative, lacking essential medicines and staff. Malaria, easily preventable and treatable in many contexts, remains one of the top causes of death. Chronic shortages of malaria medication persisted throughout 2025, contributing to thousands of severe cases.

These challenges are part of a broader systemic collapse in public services. South Sudan ranks among the lowest globally in access to health, education, and basic utilities. Many rural areas lack functioning clinics, safe water, and trained professionals, while urban centers are overwhelmed with demand.

D. Humanitarian Access and Aid Dependency

Organizations continue to provide critical sexual and reproductive health services, GBV support, and maternal care to populations in need. Yet funding shortfalls threaten continuity; in 2025, only 14 % of required funding for core programming was received, underscoring the fragility of humanitarian support.

These humanitarian gaps are increasingly dangerous as displacement, hunger, disease, and conflict risk becoming chronic rather than cyclical emergencies.

VI. Society and Demographics: The People of South Sudan

South Sudan’s population is young and growing. According to population estimates for 2026, the country’s population stands around 12.4 million, with only about 28 % living in urban areas and a median age of 19 years.

Culturally, South Sudan is richly diverse, composed of multiple ethnic groups, languages, and traditions. Cultural expressions — such as the Pojulu Cultural Festival — celebrate these identities and serve as platforms for dialogue and community cohesion. However, ethnic rivalry continues to be harnessed for political ends, exacerbating divisions and undermining national unity.

VII. Peacebuilding, Development, and Long‑Term Strategies

Despite immense challenges, governments and international partners are engaged in peacebuilding and reconstruction efforts. In January 2026, the South Sudan government initiated a push to transition from emergency aid to development‑oriented solutions. The South Sudan Durable Solutions Strategy and Plan of Action (2024–2028) seeks to help displaced persons, returnees, and host communities achieve sustainable living conditions.

These plans include land allocation, housing, access to services, and livelihood opportunities in priority states like Unity, Upper Nile, and Western Bahr el Ghazal. Initiatives like transitional housing in Malakal and vocational training programs aim to build local capacity and economic resilience.

Such strategies represent a promising shift — but progress remains contingent on peace, funding, and institutional commitment.

VIII. International and Regional Dynamics

South Sudan’s fate is intimately connected to regional stability. The ongoing war in Sudan — South Sudan’s northern neighbor — has crippled oil export routes and triggered refugee flows that further stress limited resources. South Sudan sometimes positions itself diplomatically as a mediator, but the protracted conflict next door adds pressure to an already fragile state.

International actors — including the African Development Bank, World Bank, UN, and IGAD (Intergovernmental Authority on Development) — are deeply involved in economic support and peace processes. Yet the interplay of geopolitics, donor fatigue, and regional insecurity complicates external engagement.

IX. Looking Ahead: Fragile Hope or Perilous Descent?

As South Sudan moves toward elections in December 2026, the nation stands at a crossroads. The choices made in the next year will shape whether peace advances, governance reforms take root, and development pathways emerge, or whether the cycle of conflict and collapse deepens.

Significant obstacles remain:

Persistent ethnic and political divisions threaten social cohesion.
Economic collapse and food insecurity undermine stability.
Infrastructure and public services remain severely inadequate.
Human rights abuses and authoritarian practices weaken democratic prospects.
Regional instability, especially in Sudan, continues to hamper recovery.

Yet there are reasons for measured hope:

The democratic process – if inclusive and credible – could provide a platform for reconciliation and accountability.
Grassroots peacebuilding and community resilience projects offer localized pathways toward stability.
Renewed international focus and strategic aid targeted toward structural reforms could support sustainable progress.