The South Sudanese Civil War (2013-2018)

Introduction: A Young Nation’s Struggle

The Republic of South Sudan gained independence on 9 July 2011, becoming the world’s youngest sovereign state after decades of conflict with Sudan. Hopes were high that independence would usher in peace, development, and political stability. Yet, within just two years, the country was plunged into a devastating civil war that fractured its society, ravaged its economy, and inflicted immense human suffering. The South Sudanese Civil War, which exploded in December 2013, is one of the most consequential conflicts of the early 21st century, its effects felt both within the nation and across the broader East African region.

Historical Roots: Legacies of War and Division

Colonial and Early Post‑Colonial Backdrop

To understand the South Sudanese Civil War, it is essential to situate it within the broader history of Sudan’s long and turbulent struggles. For much of the 20th century, Sudan was beset by conflicts driven by regional, ethnic, religious, and economic divisions. Southern Sudanese communities — predominantly African, Christian, and animist — were marginalized politically and economically by successive Khartoum governments dominated by northern elites, mostly Arab and Muslim. Two prolonged civil wars (1955–1972 and 1983–2005) pitted southern insurgents against the central government, displacing millions and costing lives at a massive scale.

From Independence to Tension

The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) of 2005 ended the second civil war and allowed for a referendum on southern independence. In the 2011 referendum, nearly 99% of voters opted to secede, leading to the birth of South Sudan. But secession did not resolve underlying problems. The new state struggled with building inclusive governance, managing diverse ethnic identities, and distributing resource wealth — particularly oil revenues — equitably. It inherited fragile institutions and deep mistrust among communities that had been shaped by decades of conflict.

The Outbreak of Civil War

Political Power Struggle

The immediate trigger of civil war was political. In December 2013, President Salva Kiir Mayardit, a Dinka, dismissed his entire cabinet, including First Vice President Riek Machar, a Nuer. The two men had led the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM) during the liberation struggle and were central figures in the post‑independence government. Kiir’s move was widely seen as an attempt to consolidate power and sideline rivals. Machar, perceiving himself targeted, rejected the action and soon announced a rebellion against Kiir’s government.

Ethnic Dimensions and Early Atrocities

Although the conflict was rooted in elite political rivalry, it quickly took on an ethnic character. The Dinka and Nuer — the largest and second‑largest ethnic groups in South Sudan — would become the primary constituencies of the opposing sides. Violence escalated rapidly, with government forces and allied militias clashing with Machar’s supporters and allied groups. One of the earliest and most horrifying events was the Nuer massacre of December 2013 in the capital, Juba. During this episode, units of the army loyal to Kiir, along with allied militias, reportedly carried out a coordinated campaign of killings targeting Nuer civilians and fighters, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and massive internal displacement.

Spread of War Across the Country

The conflict spread from Juba to states across the country – Upper Nile, Unity, and Jonglei among the worst affected. Battles swept through villages and towns, alliances formed and dissolved among various armed groups, and large segments of the population were uprooted. Early massacres were followed by retaliatory attacks, creating spirals of revenge killings. The war’s early years (2013–2015) laid the groundwork for years of brutal hostilities that would engulf the young nation.

Conflict Intensification and International Diplomacy

Humanitarian Crisis and Famine

By 2014–2015, the war had created one of the most severe humanitarian crises in Africa. Millions were displaced internally, and millions more fled to neighboring countries such as Uganda, Sudan, and Kenya. Agricultural systems collapsed, markets were disrupted, and famine conditions emerged in some regions. The United Nations declared famine in parts of Unity State in 2017, the first such declaration in the world in years. By that time, the conflict had caused hundreds of thousands of deaths directly through violence and indirectly through hunger and disease.

International Response

International actors — including the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the African Union (AU), the United Nations, and various Western and regional states — engaged in mediation efforts. However, peace initiatives were hindered by deep mistrust between the warring parties and competing geopolitical interests. Brief cessations of hostilities were often followed by renewed fighting, as factions failed to implement agreements on power-sharing, integration of forces, and governance reforms.

The 2018 Peace Agreement and Fragile Progress

Revitalised Peace Agreement (R‑ARCSS)

After years of intermittent negotiations, the warring parties – including Kiir’s government, Machar’s faction (the SPLM‑In Opposition, SPLM‑IO), and other armed groups – signed the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R‑ARCSS) in September 2018. The deal aimed to establish a transitional Government of National Unity, integrate armed forces, draft a new constitution, and prepare the country for elections.

Implementation Challenges

Despite the agreement, implementation was slow and fraught with delays. Key provisions — particularly on military unification and political reforms — lagged. Timelines were repeatedly extended, and tensions persisted between Kiir and Machar. Although Machar returned to Juba as First Vice President as part of the unity government, mutual suspicion and divisive political maneuvers undermined confidence in the peace process.

Renewed Clashes and the Brink of Collapse (2025–Present)

2025–2026 Hostilities

After years of relative calm interspersed with low‑level violence, fighting intensified again in late 2025. In Jonglei State, clashes between the SPLA‑IO and pro‑government forces resulted in numerous deaths and tens of thousands of displaced civilians. In Nasir County, renewed clashes between the Nuer White Army and South Sudanese military forces drove additional displacement. These renewed hostilities reflect the fragility of the peace process and the persistent volatility in contested regions.

Political Deadlock and New Tensions

The political landscape further deteriorated in 2025 when Riek Machar was arrested on allegations of treason, murder, and other crimes related to alleged militia support. His detention and trial sparked outrage from opposition factions and plunged the peace process deeper into uncertainty. President Kiir’s reshuffling of military leadership amid rising violence has reinforced perceptions of maneuvering to consolidate power rather than foster reconciliation.

United Nations and Global Concerns

In early 2026, the United Nations warned that South Sudan was “on a dangerous precipice,” with escalating violence, militia seizures of army garrisons, and restricted humanitarian access. The stalled implementation of the 2018 peace agreement jeopardizes scheduled elections and raises fears of a return to full-scale civil war. The deteriorating situation has also worsened disease outbreaks — including cholera — and made aid operations increasingly perilous.

Humanitarian Impact: Death, Displacement, and Suffering

Casualties and Displacement

Over the course of the civil war, estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of people have died as a result of direct violence or its indirect consequences, such as hunger and disease. More than 4 million South Sudanese were internally displaced, with millions more seeking refuge in neighboring states. These figures paint a grim picture of a society severely battered by human suffering.

Ethnic Violence and Massacres

Conflicts in villages and urban centers have often targeted civilians because of ethnic identity or perceived allegiance. Events such as the Bentiu massacre in April 2014, where more than 400 civilians were killed, exemplify the brutal nature of the war and its ethnic overtones.

Food Insecurity and Disease

The destruction of agricultural systems and markets contributed to chronic food insecurity. In some areas, famine was declared, and millions faced life-threatening hunger. Disease outbreaks, malnutrition, and lack of medical access compounded the crisis. Aid delivery was hampered by insecurity and logistical challenges, leaving vulnerable populations exposed.

Regional and International Dimensions

Effects on Neighboring States

South Sudan’s conflict spilled beyond its borders. Refugee flows strained resources in Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, and Sudan. The war’s proximity to ongoing crises in Sudan — particularly the broader civil conflict there — increased regional instability. Spillover tensions around shared oil infrastructure have economic and security implications for South Sudan, which depends on pipelines through Sudan for oil exports.

International Mediation and Engagement

Various international entities have attempted to mediate peace and provide humanitarian relief. The United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has maintained civilian protection sites, though these have sometimes been scaled back or constrained by funding and access issues. Sanctions have been used against political actors accused of fueling violence, and external voices continue to push for renewed negotiations.

The Costs of Conflict and the Challenge of Nation‑Building

Economic Devastation

The civil war has crippled South Sudan’s economy. Oil — the backbone of state revenue — suffered from disrupted production and damaged infrastructure. The conflict discouraged investment, destroyed livelihoods, and weakened the state’s capacity to provide basic services.

Social Fragmentation

Beyond physical destruction, the war has fractured social cohesion. Ethnic tensions, distrust of state institutions, and cycles of violence have eroded community bonds. Rebuilding trust and forging a shared national identity remain monumental challenges.

Governance and Political Reform

Peace requires more than cessation of hostilities. It demands inclusive governance structures, accountability for atrocities, and reforms that address marginalization. Yet political elites often prioritize power over reconciliation, undermining prospects for lasting peace.

Paths Forward and Prospects for Peace

Revitalizing the Peace Process

A reinvigorated peace process must involve all stakeholders – political leaders, community representatives, civil society, and international mediators. Key measures include:

Full implementation of the 2018 peace agreement’s provisions on power-sharing and security integration.
Truth and reconciliation mechanisms to address past atrocities.
Economic and institutional reforms to ensure equitable distribution of resources.
Protection of human rights and accountability for violations.